It's going to be another busy, above average hurricane season meteorologists say

4/10/2018 (Permalink)

Source: USA Today

After a nightmarish 2017 hurricane season featuring monsters such as Harvey, Irma and Maria, many in the U.S. are hoping for a quieter year. A top forecasting group says that won't be the case.

Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and other experts from Colorado State University — regarded as the nation's top seasonal hurricane forecasters — predict 14 named tropical storms, of which seven will become hurricanes. Both numbers are above the average of 12 and six, respectively.

A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its wind speed reaches 74 mph. 

Of the seven predicted hurricanes, three are expected to spin into major hurricanes — category 3, 4 or 5 — with sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or greater. The group said there's a slightly above-average chance for major hurricanes to make landfall along the U.S. coastline. Klotzbach put the chance of a major hurricane strike at 63%. 

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, though storms sometimes form outside those dates.

Colorado State's prediction in 2017 was low: Last year, the team predicted 11 tropical storms would form, of which 4 would become hurricanes. In all, 17 tropical storms developed and 10 strengthened into hurricanes.

One of the major determining factors in hurricane forecasting is whether the U.S. is in an El Niño or La Niña climate pattern, he said.

El Niño is a natural warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water, which tends to suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes. Its opposite, La Niña, marked by cooler ocean water, tends to increase hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Klotzbach said we're now in a weak La Niña event, which appears likely to diminish over the next several months. At this point, a significant El Niño is not anticipated for the summer or fall, he added.

The other big question mark in this season's predictions are how warm sea-surface temperatures will be in the tropical and far North Atlantic Ocean during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, according to the forecast. 

Hurricanes need the fuel of warm ocean water to develop and strengthen. 

AccuWeather released its hurricane forecast for the upcoming season earlier this week, predicting 12-15 named storms would form, of which six to eight will be hurricanes. The firm said three to four are likely to hit the U.S.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will issue its forecast in May.